Another week, another rally based on…nothing much.

Later today, the Potential Gas Committee will release a report affirming that yes, the United States has almost a century’s worth of proven, recoverable reserves. Speculation has already begun as to what this means for international reserves, since the drilling techniques that have lead to this substantial increase (depending on which figures you use, America’s reserves are 33% to 48% higher than they were at the last report four years ago) are only beginning to be implemented around the world.

Nonetheless, NYMEX picked this week to hold a sustained rally above $4.00, rising as high as $4.33, for no discernible reason whatsoever. There was considerable speculation….in other words, speculation about speculation…but no solid reasoning. New confidence in the economy? Perhaps. Assumptions that natural gas will eventually follow oil pricing, as it has in the past? Perhaps. Market tricks aimed at short-term recoups? Perhaps.

As of this writing, the rally is wilting a bit in the face of the hefty injection from today’s storage report, but is resisting the precipitous drop we have seen, and enjoyed watching, on past Thursdays. Just like NYMEX to spoil our fun. Did they read last week’s newsletter and become self conscious about these storage report reactions? Perhaps.

We’ve said this before: in today’s NYMEX, fundamentals aren’t enough.Indeed, investors appear to be doing their best to ignore the fundamentals while they chase that elusive Sign That The Economy Is Better. Every week, some believe they have found it. And every week, it seems, this belief is becoming a bit more resilient to the facts that contradict it.

And it plays up once again that anyone trying to time the bottom for natural gas prices is playing a risky game. All of the indicators point towards a continued downward trend before a rebound in 2010. We’re just not sure the market is paying attention to the indicators anymore.

These are some choppy seas. Cost Containment is the best way to smooth your ride.

Check the NYMEX