This past week wasn’t all that interesting. This coming week will be.

Prices bounced around a bit, but more or less stabilized around $3.50 following last Thursday’s precipitous drop, which came hot on the heels of last Thursday’s storage report. One can feel, however, the pull of a gradual slide towards the $3.00 mark. Considering that the fundamentals of the natural gas market, the outlook for the national economy and the forecast for the global economy haven’t changed all that much from where they were last week, or the week before that, or the month before that, this is entirely predictable.

It may have nothing to do, however, with what happens to natural gas prices this week. Because this week marks the turn from May into June, and funny things have been happening to the NYMEX price when the end of the month comes around. It will be worth watching to see whether this turnover is “funny” or not.

We’ll promise you one thing: nobody knows for sure.

It’s been interesting reading the market analysts these past few months as they try to come to terms with 2008. This past year saw the natural gas market endure greater volatility than ever before in its history, and also saw it follow a path that completely contradicted traditional market predictors: prices rose like a rocket during the summer, then plummeted during the winter.

And while most analysists have stuck to their guns in explaining the market according to traditional market fundamentals, each week brings a new onset of head scratching.

At Cost Containment Intl., we think they actually know the answer. They just don’t like it.

We’ve written many times in the past about the role that speculation is playing in the energy markets. Speculation is a fairly new factor for energy, and it’s a factor that has changed radically in the last few years due to the influx of a new generation of investors and fund managers. They have littler aversion to risk, they’ve enjoyed a taste of quick, easy profits, and they have little patience. They are undeterred by the fact that they’re not schooled in the fundamentals. They don’t mind playing fast and loose, especially when they’re playing with other people’s money.

In other words, they’re completely unpredictable. They tend to rush in and rush out (as we’ve seen over the past couple of months), leaving no more than tantalizing clues as to what started the rush. They amplify small price trends into major bumps. And in the process they have added a level of complexity to predicting the market which no one, as yet, has come to grips with. Most analysts are either leaving them out of the equasition or minimizing their impact.

What this means to you. We’ve said in the past that managing energy costs requires the combined skills of an engineer, an economist, a geologist, a climatologist, and a political scientist. Looking ahead, you’ll have to be a psychologist, as well. While it is doubtful that market factors will converge again into the “perfect storm” that was 2008, it’s not out of the question. Nothing is out of the question right now.

There is one factor, however, that you can predict and even control: your own tolerance to risk. This is a good time to take your own pulse, know your own mind, and set up an energy plan that matches your personality. Because the decisions won’t be getting any easier. We’re here to help.

Check the NYMEX