The news of the week, and this is news which should catch your attention, is the near total lack of movement of natural gas prices since our last newsletter.

Stocks ricocheted like a ping-pong ball.

Oil dropped, as much as 7% in one day, and then dropped some more.

Natural gas sat tight.

Up until this point, there has been a fairly consistent coupling of prices in the energy commodity market, with oil and natural gas moving more or less in tandem. This is no longer the case, and hasn’t been for the past few weeks. Yet another of the “usual suspects” in predicting movement on the NYMEX is no longer acting according to plan. We’re running out of suspects.

Which brings us to a question we have been hearing from a lot of Cost Containment Intl.’s customers: “shouldn’t I wait and see if prices go down even more?”

The answer is: “that depends. Are you willing to live with being wrong?”

Waiting for the price to bottom is known as market timing, and we don’t recommend that customers try and time the market. The credit approval process, especially in the current financial times, makes it very difficult to take advantage of temporary price drops. And sitting on your hands in hope of an “even better” deal makes it easy to wait just a little bit too long and miss a good one.

Our customers have found best success by setting a target range for savings and acting as soon as prices fall within this range, rather than seeking the lowest price possible. The current price for natural gas should be within most people’s desired range.

On a side note: a recent article noted that some utilities will be raising their residential prices by up to 30% this winter because, following standard best practices, they purchased their winter gas in July and August. It certainly seemed like a good idea when indicators were pointing to prices above $20 by winter. This points up once again the importance of having some hedge built into your natural gas plan. Do you know what your best hedge is, and how to build a plan around it? Give us a call. This would be a great time to find out.

Check the NYMEX